2008/2009년의 부동산 폭락 가능한가?

대내외적인 요건때문에 요즘 주가가 하루 사이로 급락/급등 하고 있습니다.
이와 더불어 경제 뉴스에 가장 많이 언급되는것이 향후 주택시장의 동향입니다 올초만 해도 핫했던 주택시장이 여름으로 들어오면서 서서히 주춤하기 시작했고 가장 최근 나온 9월  데이터를 분석해보면 그동안 절대물량이 부족했던 주택 매물이 작년대비 40% 가량 증가했고 주택 가격 상승폭도 최근 몇년평균을 훨씬 밑도는 수치이고 특별히 올해 8월과 비교해서 9월에 오히려 가격이 떨어진 지역도 있는 상황에서 이런 현상이 지난 2008-2009년에 발생했던 주택 폭락의 재연이 아닌가하는 우려의 목소리가 높아가고 있습니다. 이런 가운데 서브프라임 사태를 정확히  예견했었던 NYU 경제학 교수인 Robert Shiller의  최근 비즈니스 전문 체널인 CNBC와의 인터뷰를 통해서 현재 주춤한 주택시장에 대한 그의 견해를 들어보는것도 향후 주택매매를 계획하는 모든 분들에게 도움이 될것 같아 관련 기사를 소개합니다.

A sharp slowdown in the housing market has led to worries that a repeat of the subprime meltdown of 2007?08 might be brewing, but the Nobel Laureate economist who predicted that crisis believes that such fears are overblown today. While noting that home prices having been rising since 2012, Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University told CNBC: “A housing bubble is not much in evidence…It’s not the same. It’s more placid.” He added, “I don’t expect a sharp turn in the housing market at this point.”

“The subprime crisis was a history-making event,” Shiller told CNBC, noting that it included the sharpest up and down movement in home prices in U.S. history. Best known for developing the CAPE ratio to analyze stock market valuations, Shiller also is the co-developer of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The latest release, in September, showed a slowing of home price increases in July, per CNBC. Nonetheless, the average price of a new home has risen by more than 60% since late 2011, per CBS News.

The rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now around 5%. This is the highest level since 2011, per a recent report from Goldman Sachs, which adds that the Housing Affordability Index is near its lowest level in 10 years. In September, housing starts fell by 5.3% and new home sales by 5.5% from August, per Goldman. Compared to Sept. 2017, new home sales were down by 13%, per U.S. Census Bureau data cited by CNBC. 

Young people aged 25 to 34 from the so-called millennial generation have a home ownership rate that is about 8% lower than the baby boomers and Gen X people had at similar ages, per data from the Urban Institute cited by CBS. High student loan debt and low wage growth are factors behind the low rate of home ownership among millennials, leading to about 3.4 million fewer homeowners in total nationwide that otherwise would have been the case, per the same sources.

Meanwhile, the average tenure of people in their homes is increasing, partly in response to the affordability problem with new homes, MarketWatch reports. Based on analysis by Attom Data Solutions, that report indicates that the average existing home that changed hands in 3Q 2018 was occupied by its previous owner for 8.23 years, almost twice the length of time in the year 2000, when Attom’s data begins. The same story cites data from CoreLogic indicating that 2.2 million homeowners have underwater mortgages, owing more than the houses are worth, and that another 550,000 have home equity of less than 5%, meaning that real estate broker commissions and other transaction costs are likely to leave them with no profit on a sale.